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Economic Background For Investment In Thailand Part 5

The government adapted strict monetary and fiscal policies to control the rate of inflation during this period. Rigid monetary policies were used to limit credit expansion in the private sector. The fiscal policies were mostly the levying of import and export taxes. The export taxes were imposed on some commodities, such as rice and sugar, as a means to control domestic prices. The import tax on raw materials used for manufacturing was reduced. There was also a tax on raw materials used for manufacturing was reduced. There was also a tax rebate for importing raw materials for producing export commodities.

The Fourth Plan (1977-1981) : The Economic Recovery Period

During the Third Economic and Social Development Plan, Thailand was affected by the world economic fluctuations as were other countries. Regional, political instability also acted to weaken the Thai economy, as many neighboring countries changed from democratic to socialist countries. This resulted in investors losing confidence in Thailand. The consequence was a higher rate of unemployment.

By the end of the Third Plan, inequitable income distribution was a major problem. Therefore, one of the main objectives in the Fourth Plan was to distribute economic growth and social services to the remote regions of the to country. The population was targeted to increase at rate 2.3 percent a year. It was expected that this rate of growth was appropriate for cohabitation with the existing natural resources and would be suitable for economic development.

The Fourth Plan was set to be an indicative plan instead of allocative plan, as all earlier plans were. This indicative plan was intended to be a practical guideline for government agencies to improve their policies and set up practical objectives. The Fourth Plan was designed to resolve the economic recession and to maintain economic stabilization. It also intended to solve the basic economic and structural problems. It was planned not only to stimulate economic growth but also to reduce the economic inequality in society.

Concerning disparities in income distribution, the Fourth Plan was unable to find a solution to this problem. The per capital income in the agricultural sector was 5 times lower than manufacturing and commercial sectors, and 2 times lower than the service sector. The people in the Northeastern part of Thailand suffered the most poverty. Per capita income in Northeastern Thailand was five to seven times lower than in Bangkok in 1981. The proportion of regional production relative to GDP declined from 15 percent in 1976 to 14.3 percent in 1981.

With respect to social services, toward the end of the Fourth Plan, the rate of population growth was reduced to 2.2 percent. The government was unable to meet the targeted goals for provided were close to the goal, but not in all regions of the country.

Overall, the Fourth Plan was more successful than the Third Plan. The GDP increased at a rate of 7.5 percent a year. This high rate of growth was the result of attempting to maintain an economic stabilization policy to fight worldwide economic fluctuation. The government increased public investment spending from the target set at 14.6 percent to 24.8 percent a year. Economic expansion on terms of production sectors showed a higher growth rate than the target set in almost every sector except for agricultural and manufacturing sectors. The agricultural sector grew less than anticipated in the plan because of the limited planning area and the deterioration quality of planting soil. The manufacturing sector was curbed by the world wide economic recession so that the export of manufactured goods during the Fourth Plan was not as high as the Third Plan.

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Economic Background For Investment In Thailand Part 2

The First National Economic Development Plan continually emphasized development in Thailand. The Second National Economic Development Plan continually emphasized the development of infrastructure in such areas as communication and transportation. The Third Plan was named, the National Economic Development Plan, as it combined social economic development along with economic development in efforts to improve the quality of life for all Thais.

The Fourth Economic Development Plan was instituted during the economic recovery period and mans significant Economic and Social Development plan, although there was worldwide economic fluctuation, Thailand concentrated on eradicating rural poverty, increasing domestic productivity and developing the eastern Seaboard area. The Sixth National Economic and Social Development Plan could be lebeled the golden period as the Thai economic growth in every sector was substantially increased. Currently, the Seventh Economic Development and Social Development Plan emphasized equitable income distribution and environmental awareness in order to conserve sacred environmental resources.

Throughout the process of performing the seven National Economic and Social Development Plans, new goals of development to accomplish were growth, stability, employment, income distribution and balance of trade. Each of the seven plans had contributed to outcomes of one or another of those goals. Determining the effectiveness of Thailand: national development is a long process in which the better quality of living and well being of the nation are concerned.

The first plan (1961-1966) : A new era of economic development

The first plan can be divided into two periods, between 1961 to 1963 and between 1964 to 1966: however, these time frames are more for illustrative purposes as no actual National Economic Development Plan had been officially declared. The Plan consisted of a variety of development projects: moreover, statistics and data necessary for economic planning were not available to the planning agencies at that time.

The First Plan succeeded in setting the Thai economy onto a new track. Economic growth increased by 6.1 percent a year. The economy became more balanced by reducing the size of the agricultural sector from 38.3 percent of GDP in 1961 to 33.9 percent in 1966. Although the agricultural sector was a major part of the GDP. This sector become more diversified by producing more new crops.

Thai international Trade traditionally consisted of exporting a small amount of commodities and importing consumer goods. Seventy percent of exports consisted of rice, rubber, tin and teak, but in 1960, these efforts were reduced to 52.6 percent. Imported consumer goods were reduced from 35.0 percent of total imports in 1960 to 25.5 percent in 1966, while the import of capital goods increased from 24.6 percent of total imports in 1960 to 30.8 in 1966.

The Second Plan (1967-1971): The Foundation of the Infrastructure

The Thai economy was now in a new era of development since the initiation of the First Plan. Toward the end of the First Plan.

Thailand had an increase in political conflict. Both internally and externally. These conflicts led to higher government expenditures for bureaucratic administration and for strengthening of internal affairs in order to protect Thailand from external threat. The budget for economic development declined from 30.3 percent of the government expenditure during the First Plan to 17.4 percent in the Second Plan.

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Economic Background For Investment In Thailand Part 3

The Second Plan (1967-1971): The Foundation of the Infrastructure

The Thai economy was now in a new era of development since the initiation of the First Plan. Toward the end of the First Plan. Toward the end of the First Plan. Thailand had an increase in political conflict. Both internally and externally. These conflicts led to higher government expenditures for bureaucratic administration and for strengthening of internal affairs in order to protect Thailand from external threat. The budget for economic development declined from 30.3 percent of the government expenditure during the First Plan to 17.4 percent in the Second Plan.

The Second Plan. Also of 5 years duration. Continually emphasized the development of infrastructure, especially improvement of transportation and communications. The distribution of economic development to the rural regions was included in the Second Plan. Especially in the remote and draught-stricken areas.

The effectiveness of development projects in the First Plan combined with increases in population caused an expansion of communities. This in turn led to insufficient public services in many communities. This in turn led to insufficient public services in many communities, for example, public health services provided by the government were inadequate to meet public needs. Another social problem which became a concern at the beginning of the Second Plan was education. There were not many people possessing degrees in Thailand at this time. Apparently the education system did not serve the needs of the labour market. More over, the size of the labour market in the rural area was found to be poorly matched to the size of the labour force. This caused an increase in the rate of unemployment and a waste of human resources which blocked economic development in the long run.

The Second Plan was much more detailed than the First Plan as far as financial planning data for development projects were concerned. The primary objectives of the Second Plan were as follows:

1. The need for social development to co-exist with economic development.

2. The need for human resource development so that the education system was consistent with the needs of the labour market.

3. A reduction of the trade deficit by supplementing the import substitution industries.

4. Assisting the private sector so that it could play a major part in the development of industry, commerce and services, as well as strengthening the relationship between government and private sectors.

5. Pushing forward with economic growth, and economic and financial stabilization.

The results of the Second Plan were expected to raise the GDP by 8.5 percent per year, manufacturing 10.9 percent, construction 11.0 percent, transportation and communications 11 percent and banking 17 percent, transportation and communications 11 percent and banking 17 percent. It was expected that per capital income would rise to 3,900 Baht per year. The anticipated increase in income would be generated by two major factors:

1. The expansion of investment expenditures in government and private sectors.

2. The expansion of international trade and international cooperation.

During this Second Plan, the government’s developmental policy which focused initially on economy had changed to include social development into an “ Economic and Social Development Plan”.

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Economic Background For Investment In Thailand Part 1

Economic Background for Investment in Thailand

Until quite recently, Thailand had a reputation for being primarily a country which relied heavily on commodity exports, it used to be the world’s largest rice exporter.

However, this is no longer true, the agricultural exports used to represent more than 40 percent of the country’s export in the mid-80s. Now its share of the total export has dropped to only around 20 percent. The pace of industrialization and the growing proportion of exports taken up by manufactured goods reflect the increasing volume of investment which is going into industrial development. Thailand has enjoyed consistent economic growth for more than three decades whereby during the ‘60s and ‘70s average annual growth exceeded 7 percent, an impressive rate by any standards. But only over the last half decade or so has it become the real industrial powerhouse of the region

Economic growth in the year since 1987 has run at over 10 percent per annual, a rate which made the country the fastest growing in the region and perhaps the world. With the growth has come and influx of foreign investment, growth of the service sector, especially tourism, reduced unemployment and manageable levels of inflation. It has also brought significant changes in the structure of the economy. The principal change has been a general drift away from the agricultural sector which has shrunk in overall importance to the manufacturing sector whose share of overall production growth from 21.5 percent in 1986 increased to more than 30 percent in 1991. Its share looks set to increase still further in the years ahead.

Economic Development through National Development Plan

The economic development in Thailand began about 30 years ago when the country, for the first time, formulated and adopted the National Economic Development Plan in 1961. Before that period economic development was implemented without planning or direction. The National Development Plan became the main tool in achieving the target of the strategies in National development. Various development programs and projects were identified and coordinated umbrella, and human and financial resources were mobilized and accelerated the national development during each specific 5 year period.

The Royal Thai Government declared a “National Economic Development Plan” as the guidelines for economic development under three objectives. First, the Thai economy would be pushed forward to expand under the guidelines of the “National Economic Development Plan” Secondly, the Thai economy would develop without much restrictions and constraints. Finally, private sector would play a major role in investment and industrial development.

The economic development plan was accomplished by incorporation of the plan into the government and private sectors, as well as accounting for foreign investment and trade. This was done by analyzing the development of capital, natural resources technology and human resources in Thailand.

The First National Economic Development Plan continually emphasized development in Thailand. The Second National Economic Development Plan continually emphasized the development of infrastructure in such areas as communication and transportation. The Third Plan was named, the National Economic Development Plan, as it combined social economic development along with economic development in efforts to improve the quality of life for all Thais.

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The World Loves to Hate the United States

Why is the U.S. the most loved and the most hated country in the world at the same time?

It is the country that people love to hate because of its wealth, power, kindness and resilient spirit. Although the United States of America is often criticized, when there is a problem, they are usually the ones other countries come to for help.

With their country known as one the world’s “super powers,” Americans often come under fire for being wasteful, arrogant, wealthy and opinionated. Their democracy affords them freedom of speech and religion, the right to bear arms and to vote for their government leaders.

In many countries, speaking one’s mind may get someone imprisoned, executed or deported by their government. In the United States, people are expected to share their opinions. The only retaliation they probably face is a counterpoint from someone else. They say whatever they want with few repercussions. For this reason, Americans are often seen as opinionated and arrogant.

Having one’s own opinion is seen as a threat to the government or politicians in other places. For example, where one religion is required to be followed by everyone, Americans choose their religions based on personal faith and belief, not on mandate. Christianity is frowned upon in fundamentally Muslim countries. Because so many Americans are Christian, they are seen as the devil incarnate and are hated for it.

With the ability to think and express freely comes open commerce. Although the American economy is suffering somewhat now, food, clothing and shelter still abound in the U.S. while people in many third-world countries are starving and have no means to protect themselves from the elements.

The U.S. is also one of the highest in consumption of the world’s natural resources per capita. This backs the argument that Americans are wasteful. Consumers are famous for wanting the biggest and the best they can have for their dollars. However, this image is really only portrayed on television and sometimes by wealthy tourists abroad. Anyone that thinks Americans truly live as their network shows “The Young and the Restless” or “Desperate Housewives” has no concept of reality whatsoever.

America’s prosperity is cause for hatred from those who don’t have it. However, when other countries are struck with disaster, the United States is usually the first country to step forward with assistance to their critics.

The U.S. military flies in with aid when allowed, such as food, medicine and supplies donated after tidal waves destroyed villages in Indonesia, mud slides ravaged Haiti and earthquakes leveled parts of China.

America is seen as a safer place to live, as well. Although they “hate” Americans, foreigners send their children to study and learn at U.S. universities and play sports at their state-of-the-art facilities.

Millions of refugees each year try to sneak across the borders of America, the “land of opportunity.” One family member will earn a living in the States and send money home to those who can otherwise barely afford to survive.

So although the U.S. appears to be the most hated country in the world, it is also loved at the same time.

For more information on the United States of America, visit http://www.microblogusa.com/

All Ruling Civilizations Go Down: Is the USA Next?

For decades the people and government of the U.S.A. have worried and obsessed over occupation or disaster brought on from the outside. The Cold War was all about the fear of annihilation by the Communists and Russia (the Soviet Union). We have so obsessed over that fear that we often forget the truth behind the rule that great societies such as ours do not usually get destroyed from the outside—they fall apart from within. How does the U.S.A. stack up in the realm of great societies that have crumbled? Sadly I’m afraid.

The path of destruction all great societies have taken is a common one, and one that we share in frightening proportions. Affluence is the start of any great society and few can argue with the wonders of having great wealth. The wealth of the U.S.A. began in the industrial age and transferred into the technological age with head spinning speed. Softness usually follows, and it did. An acceptance of things that otherwise would make us cringe because it seems that we are ‘deserving’ of such luxuries. Decadence is triggered by softness—if a little of something is great, a lot of it is even better. This cascades into a constant need for more, better, bigger, faster—does that sound familiar? Then comes the after effects of decadence—extinction. The current economic situation in the U.S. should make anyone who pays attention to the above shudder with fear.

Decadence is truly the catalyst that causes great societies to fall: whether it is a relaxing of moral values, or financial decadence that drives a need to have everything immediately at any cost, or usually both at once. It causes a collapse of everything that the affluent society once held true and dear. The very moral and economic fiber that got the society to the point of affluence disappears. Once it is all swept away by greed and desire the entire fabric of that society collapses upon itself because it no longer has the impetus that made it great. With work ethics, moral ethics, and frugality gone there is nothing to keep the financial and economic structure afloat.

From ancient Egypt to Rome and even to the Communist Soviet Union the pattern has been set and history repeats itself because no one ever thinks it will happen to them. The beginning of the cycle is so alluring and comfortable that it is hard to see it as a bad thing. Once the pattern gets to the point of extreme softness and begins to tumble into decadence even if those inside can see the destruction coming it is often too late. It tumbles like an avalanche to its logical conclusion.

Is the U.S.A. doomed to repeat historical collapse? Probably. It is very difficult for any society to continue with such incredible power and wealth. Those that see it coming are usually powerless to stop those in control who have the most influence over prosperity and those who are enjoying the financial and moral freedom have little desire to stop it. Why stop a good thing? On the upside—when a society falls another takes its place. It’s not the end of the world as we know it—only a beginning to something new.

For more information on America, visit http://www.americanmicroblog.com/

How Did They Harvest the Plutonium Found Orbiting Saturn?

Benji, the computer entity, was guiding the exploration of Saturn’s moons by Capt. Marcos and his team of spatons (space robots) with his space ship ‘Napolean.’

Napoleon was roving about ‘Find 68’ mapping the region for radio activity carefully. It was not long before Capt. Marco sent message to Benji that the radio active (RA) source pinpointed to what looked like a bundle of Chinese noodles floating the outermost orbit of Saturn’s moons. Their bundle appeared to be 1kilometer wide and about 5 kilometers long. It consisted of long strands of wire bundled together. It was in the same orbit as ‘Rhea’ a known moon of Saturn. A little calculation showed that the bundle of rods was trailing Rhea by 60 degrees in its orbit. It seemed to have been caught in the L5 Lagrange point of Rhea and was its trojan. It was 527,000 km from Saturn and its orbit time was almost exactly 100 Earth hours. The unusual mass seemed to have come from outer space and caught in orbit by Saturn’s gravity and Rhea’s pull without any impact.

As the ship went nearer, Capt. Marco saw that the wiry rods, and said, “Each wire-like rod is cylindrical with a shiny silvery surface.” The ship went closer. He observed, “It looks like a kind of pure metal, but the radio activity is very high. Each strand is about 1 meter in diameter and 50-100 m long. There are hundreds of them tangled together.”

“Send a Spaton down to the rod and take a sample of the material for analysis”, Benji ordered.

Capt. Marco sent down a Spaton who touched the rod with its newly developed ‘claws’ and held firmly on to the surface. He took a shaving of the material and returned to the ship. Capt. Marco put the sample in the analyzer and sent the data down to Earth for Benji. Benji forwarded the data from the material to a specialized lab which identified it as Plutonium. Further analysis and research showed it to be Plutonium 244. The lab sent the analysis report with a short note to Benji. ‘On Earth Plutonium is not found in nature. It is a byproduct in the atomic reactor. It gets made from Uranium 238. When an atom of U-238 is exposed to neutron radiation, its nucleus captures a neutron, changing it to U-239. The U-239 rapidly undergoes beta decay to produce Neptunium-239, which rapidly undergoes second beta decay, producing Plutonium-239. A part of it gets converted to Plutonium 240 in the process, but not to Plutonium 244. Plutonium 239 is a very valuable material. Just 15 kg is enough to make a nuclear bomb. The total quantity of Plutonium 239 in the whole world, stockpiled by nuclear countries was only about 1000 tons!’

Kalpa was the first to speak out. “It is pure Plutonium 244. It’s only 2% spent, indicating that it might have come there about 3 million years ago. The 244 isotope is not made on Earth. It has a half life of 83 million years, much longer than the 24,000 years of Plutonium 239. The longer the half life, the better it is for making nuclear weapons. The contaminant of Plutonium 239 on Earth is Plutonium 240 which has a half life of only 6,500 years. There is no contamination of Plutonium 240 in our Plutonium 244. But we must understand why the mass has not exploded by itself. The critical mass for spontaneous explosion of an unreflecting sphere of pure Plutonium 239 is only 16 kg. Since the density of our Plutonium 244 is the same as Plutonium 239, i.e. 19.8 g/ml, the critical mass must be about the same, as it is inversely proportional to the square of the density. Here we have thousands of kilos of Plutonium 244 existing without having exploded.”

“What is critical mass?” Alby asked.

“It is the mass beyond which the fission reaction becomes a self sustaining chain reaction, leading to explosion” explained Kalpa.

“But when you talk about kilogram, it’s the weight on Earth. As there is zero gravity on the satellite, the weight of 16 kilograms is not achieved and hence there is no explosion” remarked Alby.

“This time you have spoken like a genius. The critical mass depends on density which is measured in grams per ml. The weight in grams in the orbit is a negligible fraction of that on Earth as there is no gravity. The density therefore is near to zero, and critical mass of Plutonium may be more than tens of thousand times that of Earth, and since the critical mass is not reached in this place, there is no explosion.” Benji concluded.

“But there is gravity on the moon where we want to store it. So we have to make it into pieces sized less than its critical mass for moon’s gravity and keep the pieces apart” added Kalpa.

They gloated over the find. Kalpa continued to voice her thoughts. “It is impossible to make so much quantity of Plutonium 244 on Earth, and of such pure quality. It has remained in space because there was no gravity and no oxygen to oxidize it. All the other isotopes have vanished due to their short half lives. Only Plutonium 244 survived with its half life of 83 million years. Generally in a period of 20 half lives, the trace of the substance vanishes. That is the reason why Plutonium 240 was not found.”

“So we have found Plutonium 244. I concede that it’s a huge find. Now what should we do with it?” asked Benji.

“I think we should mine it there and bring it in pieces to the moon base.” Kalpa said.

“I’ll improve on that. Let’s send in a factory ship and cut it into standard sized bars which are at least one tenth of their critical mass on the moon and pack them separately and then move them to the moon base.” Benji concurred with her, and looked at Albert.

“But the entire mass is more than a million tons. We’ll just guard it there in its place and take what we need,” suggested Albert.

Just what did they do with the Plutonium? Read the book to find out.

The author Dilip Dahanukar studied engineering in India and management in the USA. Dilip Dahanukar has written 2 science fiction books; Alien Man and eMaya. Visit the webpage of the author: ‘Dilip Dahanukar’. He is deeply appreciative of the functioning of the Earth and loves Nature.

Tsunami Warning System - Will it Give You Time to Escape?

The amount of warning time a tsunami warning system can provide depends on the distance between your location and the location of the undersea event. A tsunami can travel 500 to 600 mph in deep water, slowing as it approaches shore. If the undersea earthquake that starts the tsunami is 500 miles offshore in deep water, for example, and the tsunami is headed your way, local authorities will be notified within minutes of the event and will have about one hour to issue the warnings to the public and start announcing directions for evacuation to a safe area.

In doing research for my adventure novel TSUNAMI, I found that in some cases, a local earthquake or undersea landslide close to shore can initiate a tsunami that strikes almost without warning. In 1998, a 7.0 magnitude undersea earthquake near Papua, New Guinea, triggered a massive submarine landslide that started a 50-ft. tsunami close to shore. The wave hit the shoreline within minutes and wiped out several villages along the New Guinea coast, stripping the land almost bare. 2200 people died.

However, most major tsunamis are started by undersea earthquakes in deep water. In the Pacific Ocean, a quake will be picked up by seismometers, pressure sensors, and tidal gauges at the reporting stations of the Pacific Tsunami Warning System operated by 26 nations bordering the Pacific Basin. The collected data registers on the instruments at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Ewa Beach, Hawaii. The scientists at the Ewa Beach warning center can then determine the location, earthquake magnitude, tidal variations, and changes in ocean pressure. If readings indicate the disturbance may have started a tsunami, warnings are issued immediately to the areas in danger with approximate arrival time of the first wave.

If an undersea event happens near Alaska or anywhere along the West Coast of the U.S., the instrument signals are picked up by the West Coast & Alaska Tsunami Warning System headquartered in Palmer, Alaska. There the same procedure is followed. Immediate warnings are issued to local authorities in the areas at risk.

As part of the international tsunami warning network, the United States has recently completed its own U.S. Tsunami Warning System that takes in the Pacific Tsunami Warning System, the West Coast & Alaska Tsunami Warning System, and the Atlantic Tsunami Warning System. The U.S. system is composed of 39 DART (Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami) and DART II stations. Five stations are located in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico, and the remaining 34 in the Pacific. The DART system is made up of a pressure sensor resting on the ocean bottom that transmits continuous data by acoustic telemetry (sound waves) to a surface buoy anchored near the pressure sensor. The buoy is equipped with satellite link that relays the real time information to tsunami warning centers around the world. Certain fluctuations in ocean bottom pressure can indicate the presence of a tsunami.

Many other kinds of reporting stations and observatories are used in the larger international reporting network. These include pier-based and satellite-based tidal gauges that track the height and length of passing tsunami waves, and seismometers buried in ocean bottom caissons that measure the magnitude of an undersea earthquake and determine its location.

One of the most well known undersea seismometer projects is the Hawaii2 Observatory (H2O) located in deep water between Hawaii and California. The observatory was placed next to a retired undersea AT&T telephone cable so that the cable could be used to power the observatory. The observatory package includes a broadband seismometer, geophone, hydrophone, and pressure sensor developed by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and the University of Hawaii.

The installation was performed by ROVs (remotely operated submarine vehicles) controlled from a mother ship. The ROVs drilled a borehole, sunk a caisson into the hole, then inserted the seismic package into the caisson and sealed it. The seismic package is connected to an adjacent junction box operated with 400 watts of power fed from the old telephone cable. The sensor information is transmitted by fiber optic cable to a relay station on a surface buoy, which sends the data to the internet so that it can be used by tsunami warning centers and by universities and scientific laboratories around the world. The H2O installation has had many problems and has never performed up to expectation. However, the overall tsunami warning system works well. The entire system has undergone successful testing.

If you live on or near the beach and if your local authorities issue a tsunami warning, take it seriously and follow evacuation directions. Do not hang around the shoreline to watch the tsunami. It could cost you your life, because the wave can be up to 100 feet high and moves much faster than a person can run.

Gordon Gumpertz, author of TSUNAMI, is a working novelist who writes suspense-packed adventure novels featuring believable characters caught up in the dynamic forces of natural and man-made disasters. His books achieve a sense of immediacy and realism through extensive background research. For more, visit Tsunami.

The Introduction of the Prudential of London

It is a matter of record that both President Dryden of the Prudential and President Knapp of the Metropolitan were close students of the Prudential of London. Both went to London and witnessed the functioning of the business at first hand. In fact, Mr. Knapp and the Metropolitan’s Attorney, Stewart L. Woodford, and an expert they took with them, were shown every courtesy. They brought back with them a clear conception of the details of management, and implemented this with a complete file of the forms essential to a business as intricate as industrial insurance.

The records of the company show that the procedures and the forms of the Prudential of London were followed to a large degree, and these undoubtedly contributed to the immediate success of the venture. Of course, important adjustments to American conditions had to be made. There was a fundamental difference, for instance, in the basis on which the reserve liability was computed. To be permitted to transact business in the United States, regardless of whether it is life insurance or cheap car insurance, a company was required to maintain reserves computed on the net premium basis, which made it necessary for American companies to maintain larger reserves than those on similar business in England.

The computation of premiums in the earlier days, before the mortality experience on this class of risks or the expense rate of conducting such business was known, was not easy. It was due to the good sense and skill of James M. Craig, Actuary of the Company, that the business was launched properly and safely. The Metropolitan’s industrial business was begun with the issuance, on November 17, 1879, of 34 Industrial policies for weekly premiums totaling $3.95. Before the end of that year a total of 5,143 policies for $516,618 face amount were on the books, and those at the helm knew that their new venture was meeting a real need. By the end of 1880 the industrial business of the Metropolitan had already out

Will the Earth Be Destroyed by the Large Hadron Collider?

The Worldwide General News (WGN) TV channel was inundated with questions about the danger from the LHC which was commissioned. They decided to devote their next ‘Space Talk’ program to this subject. For the purpose, they invited Albert Burman and Kalpa, the experts to their Studio.

On the appointed day and hour, Larry Newton the presenter of the show appeared on the screen. “Good Evening viewers. I am happy to welcome our distinguished guests Albert and Kalpa for the show to our studio today. Let me begin with a short introduction about them. Albert and Kalpa are space beings written about in the Science Fiction book ‘Alien Man.’ They have explored the satellites of Saturn and discovered Steel, Gold and Plutonium! Albert and Kalpa share their experiences in space on TV from time to time. They are well known all over the World as Space Celebrities. Welcome to you both!” Larry began the session. He continued after a short pause, “The subject of our discussion is the danger of extinction from the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), the World’s largest and the most powerful particle accelerator. Our channel has received hundreds of messages mainly about the possibility of the Collider destroying the entire planet by converting it into a black hole. We want our viewers to hear your analysis on this subject.” Larry opened the topic for the day.

“Good Evening Larry. We are happy to be here with you today to enlighten all of you about black holes which might emerge from the LHC. At the outset I want to allay all your fears and assure you all that the LHC functioning will not result in the destruction of our beloved planet Earth.” Albert gave his unconditional assurance to the viewers.

“Albert is absolutely right. All fears that the black hole generated by the Collider will eat up the Earth are based on misinformation and have no scientific foundation.” Kalpa endorsed the assurance given by Albert.

“But the Collider will form the black hole. Isn’t that correct?” Larry asked pointedly.

“We don’t know for sure, the scientists are saying that it is highly improbable. But I sincerely hope that a black hole does form. It will advance our knowledge about the fundamental forces in the Universe.” Said Albert.

“But once the black hole is formed, however minute, it will gobble up matter and grow and grow till the whole Earth becomes a black hole. This is what people fear.” Said Larry.

“This fear has arisen out the simplistic view that the black holes that are formed when a star collapses into a dense ball which pulls everything inside and not even light can escape it. This was the view at the very beginning when scientists discovered the black hole in the Universe. But since then science has progressed further and we now have a far greater understanding of the properties of the black hole. It follows the same basic laws of gravity as other objects in space.” Kalpa put the knowledge of black holes in the right perspective.

“What is the power of its tremendous gravitational pull?” Larry asked.

“The gravitational force that a black hole exerts on another body depends on only 2 factors: mass and distance between them. The more the mass of the black hole the greater is its gravity, and conversely, the smaller is its mass, the smaller is its pull. Similarly, the closer the center-to-center distance between the black hole and the object, the stronger is the pull between them. In fact pull increases exponentially as the distance reduces. The actual gravitation attraction between the 2 bodies is dependent on the product of their masses, and is inversely proportional to the square of the distance between them.” Kalpa explained the basic theory.

“The black Hole does not have a unilateral force pulling the object. The black hole itself can be pulled by the gravity of other more massive objects. In the case of the LHC, if the black hole is formed, it will be hardly be made of 100 protons and will be very small indeed. In absolute terms is that the mass of the black hole will be one hundred times the mass of a single proton, about 100 x 16 E-26 kg. If you divide 1 kg. into 10 raised to 26 parts (1 followed by 26 zeros) and take just 16 of them you will get the mass of the black hole. As against that, the mass of the Earth is 6 E24 kg, which means 6 followed by 24 zeros, in kg units. This shows that the Earth is so much larger than the incumbent black hole by a factor of 10 raised to 50! (1 followed by 50 zeros). The difference is stupendous! The small mass of the black hole is truly insignificant as compared to Earth, and consequently it will be pulled by the Earth rather than vice-a-versa.” Albert explained the relative size of the black hole.

“But since it is a black hole, its size will be less than a millionth of that of the 100 protons! It’s so small that it can penetrate everything and anything. It will be pulled by Earth’s gravity and will travel through to the Earth accelerating with its gravity till it reaches the centre of the Earth and the decelerating as it goes out on the other side, to be pulled back in again. It will swing back and forth like a pendulum!” explained Albert.

“No hope of that! The black hole will just evaporate in a fraction of a nanosecond! Stephan Hawkings of the Cambridge University says that the black hole creates new energy particles on its surface which escape. This results in shrinking the black hole. He calls it ‘evaporation.’ He says the smaller the black hole the hotter it is and the faster is the rate of evaporation! I do not know why he looks at the black hole as a liquid which evaporates. I would rather look at the black hole as a solid which sublimes. But no matter how you describe it, the fact is that a small black hole of a few protons mass will evaporate and disappear faster than we can measure the time!” Kalpa explained why the black hole will not last.

“A black hole is made of very dense matter. Our Sun for instance, with its diameter of 1.4 million kilometers will shrink in size to just about 4 km to convert to a black hole. But its mass will be the same, and its gravity will remain the same. If the Sun becomes a black hole, it will not change any of the orbits of its planets in the Solar System. It will not pull the Earth and gobble it up.” Albert outlined the limitation of the black hole.

“If this is so then why do the scientists describe the black star with as a region of space with tremendous gravity forceful enough to prevent even light from escaping!” asked Larry.

“This is because for a given mass, an object can go much closer to the centre of the black hole than a star or a planet of the same mass. For example the radius of the sun is about 700,000 km. An object close to the Sun is stopped by its surface which is 700,000 km from its centre. But if the Sun converts itself to a black hole of 4km diameter, an object can go as near as 2km. from its centre. Since the distance from such a heavy mass is now reduced so drastically, that the gravity just near the centre increases by 700,000 x 700,000 = 490 billion times! But the effect of this incredible gravity is felt only in a region very close to the black hole. Such close distances are not achieved in a normal object like a star or a planet due to limitations of its comparatively large size. The difference in gravity vanishes as the object moves beyond a certain distance. Further away from a distance equal to the radius of normal star of the same mass, there is no difference in the gravity of the black hole and the star.” Kalpa was clear in her thinking.

“What you are saying is that the black hole can only stop light in a certain range beyond which it has no effect.” Larry summarized.

“That is correct. If the black holes could suck everything from everywhere, and prevent light from transmission, how could see the billions of stars in the sky? Their light could have vanished in the black holes!” said Albert.

“In the case of our LHC, the black hole generated will be of the size of about 100 protons. The protons will form into a ball and shrink about one millionth of their normal size. The diameter of a proton in units of a meter, is 10 raised to minus 15 (1 divided by 10 followed by 15 zeros). The diameter of the black hole is likely to be one ten-thousandth of this value. And the extraordinary gravity that the black hole can exert is only with a range of say 10 raised to minus 18 meter; which is a billion-billionth part of a meter! There is no possibility that any matter in the form of any protons or atomic nuclei coming so close to the minute black hole ball particularly in the extremely short duration of its existence. So for all practical purposes, there is no scope of the black hole expanding if at all it is formed.” Asserted Kalpa.

“There is another argument put forth by Steve Giddings of the University of California (Santa Barbara) and Michelangelo Mangano of LHC’s parent lab CERN. They point out that there are minute black holes being generated by cosmic rays hitting a neutron star, But these microsized black holes do not seem to grow inside the body of the star which is more than a trillion times denser than the rocks on Earth. From the observations made of the cosmos, the scientists infer that as black holes do not exist inside dense stars, they couldn’t exist inside the body of the Earth. And in case the black hole does exist it will probably take a billion years to grow to the size of a golf ball! They conclude therefore that there is no danger of the small black hole from snowballing into an Earth gobbler.” Albert brought out an authority on the subject.

“Anyway, coming back to our topic, whether the LHC will create a black hole which will destroy the Earth, the answer is an unequivocal ‘NO’! The LHC was switched on the 10th September but only for checking the functioning of the beams. There was no collision attempted. Now it is down for repairs and will be ready early in 2009. But rest assured that there is nothing going to happen to the Earth and to you when the LHC is switched on and the particle beams are made to colloid face to face at 99.9999% of the speed of light! No fears!” Albert spoke emphatically as Kalpa nodded in agreement.

“I am happy to hear that. To be frank, I was fretting too. But now I am fully relaxed. I have to thank you Albert and Kalpa for explaining the concept in simple language for the benefit of our viewers. The back office has informed me that their phone is constantly ringing with viewers giving appreciative thanks to you both. Now we can all sleep peacefully. Thank you again.” Larry wound up the discussion.

And with that the Space Talk show ended.

The author Dilip Dahanukar studied engineering in India and management in the USA. Dilip Dahanukar has written 2 science fiction books; Alien Man and eMaya. Visit the webpage of the author: ‘Dilip Dahanukar’. He is deeply appreciative of the functioning of the Earth and loves Nature.